3528  General (ret’d) Paul Manson  RMC, Class of 1956

Marsh says the policy statement ignores fundamental issues confronting the Canadian military, not least of which is a projected $1.1-billion operating deficit among the three services this year.

February's federal budget promised $12.8 billion in new defence spending over five years, but most of that won't flow until 2009-2011. This year's one-time increase to a $13-billion budget is only $500 million.

Marsh says that's not nearly enough to address the damage caused by years of neglect that began with 1990s cost-cutting, let alone rising operating costs.

"There is little acknowledgement of the serious deficits in equipment, personnel, realty assets, command, intelligence, support and national procurement - not a complete list," he writes.

"The defence paper assumes that transformation is achievable by emphasizing the future and minimizing these legacy issues."

Released April 19 as part of a broad international policy review, the government's defence policy statement promised a better-equipped, more efficient and more effective military at home and abroad within five years.

The government wants to double Canada's overseas capability, forge a stronger continental defence with the United States and assert Canada's sovereignty in the Arctic.

To do so, it says it will hire 5,000 more full-time and 3,000 part-time personnel, reorganize its command-control structure, form a special operations task force and buy new ships, aircraft and vehicles.

Marsh says fact sheets that accompany the government document are "misleading," appearing to inflate the Forces' payroll by 23,000 full-time personnel.

The sheets claim 62,500 soldiers, sailors and air crew but they don't specify how many are full-time, reservists or recruits. A Defence Department spokesman said Monday the military's trained effective strength is 53,472.

Marsh says there are actually 39,500 full-timers in the military. He notes the figure 62,500 happens to coincide with the Forces' ceiling.

"Regardless . . . it makes the reader wary of other positive claims in the paper."

However, numbers provided by the Defence Department on Monday indicate the two may be closer than they first appear.

The 62,500 figure - actually 61,534 on April 1 - includes uniformed administrators such as human resources, materiel and information management staff, said Jae Malana, a department spokesman.

The actual total number of combat forces in the three services as of April 1 was 44,657 - 5,000 more than Marsh estimates. The disparity is within the annual fluctuation the military expects, said Malana.

There are 22,280 more reservists.

"They are living figures, they do fluctuate," Malana said.

The policy document requires a level of military integration rarely, if ever, achieved outside of wartime, much less under an unstable minority government, says Marsh's analysis.

"If this large-scale integration of effort is hobbled by a lack of focus or experience, policy implementation will surely be delayed, inadequately carried out, or made impossible."

Some of Marsh's concerns are echoed by the commanders of all three services in their annual economic impact assessments. They issue dire warnings and desperate pleas for more money, equipment and personnel.

Gen. Rick Hillier himself, now the chief of defence staff, wrote in his former role as head of the army that he feared goals may exceed capabilities.

"The emphasis on resource priorities has clearly shifted," Hillier wrote in December, "yet the sustainment base has not been provided the necessary resources."

The Conference of Defence Associations is a non-profit think tank and lobby group representing 31 defence-related associations.